12:30 Report — Trump, Harris’s post-Labor Day mad dash (2024)

Welcome back from the Labor Day weekend! It’s Tuesday and it’s officially September. I’ve always thought post-Labor Day is the start of the year, not Jan. 1. (don’t @ me). It still feels like a very quiet day in Washington, though.Here’s what’s happening:

• The Hill and Decision Desk HQ give Harris a 56 percent chance of winning.
• Harris has widened her advantage over Trump among women.
• Neither party wants a government shutdown, but there are still major hurdles to prevent one.
• A new study shows that weight loss drugs, like Ozempic, may reduce the risk of sever COVID-19 reactions.

I’m Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what’s coming up. Send tips, commentary, feedback and cookie recipes to cmartel@thehill.com. Did someone forward this newsletter to you? Sign up here. 

Labor Day has come and gone. That means we’ve entered the final sprint before the election, the time when voters really begin to engage.

The Hill and Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) show Vice President Harriswith a55 percent chanceof winning the White House. WhenPresident Bidenwas at the top of the ticket, that same model gave formerPresident Trump a 56 percent chance of winning.

Where Harris has made progress: A new ABC News/Ipsos poll found that Harris has widened the gap with Trump among women, leading the former president 54 percent to 41 percent. Read more from the poll

What makes this campaign harder to map out: Labor Day is a traditional marker for the final stages of a campaign. But this time, Harris is still introducing herself to Americans. It’s only been six weeks since Biden bowed out.

And then there’s Sept. 10:Barring any major unforeseen developments, Sept. 10 is the next chance for a race reset. That’s when Trump and Harris will face off in an ABC News debate. Republican pollsterFrank Luntzsaid on Mondaythat he believes this debate “is everything.”

Luntz elaborated: “When the voter sees side by side the two candidates and they listen to what they say, not just the answers, it’s the body language. Is there contempt? Does someone fold their arms? Do they look at the individual when they’re speaking? Do they seem presidential in their approach?”

Happening Wednesday: Harris is expected to unveil her economic policy plans,according to The Washington Post. Her team wants to draw a contrast with Trump’s calls for a lower corporate tax rate, though the details are unclear.

Republicans have been favored to win back control of the upper chamber, butVice President Harris’s recent entrance into the race has scrambled the projections a bit. The Hill’sAl Weaver breaks down Senate seats that are themost likely to flip:

West Virginia: The Hill and Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ)forecast a 99 percent chanceof retiring Sen.Joe Manchin’s (I-W.Va.) seat swinging to Republican.

Montana: This seat has been a top priority for Republicans. The Hill and DDHQ’s polling average shows RepublicanTim Sheehy with a 3.5-point lead. Weaver put it simply: “If Republicans win Montana, they win back control.”

Ohio: Aside from Montana, Sen.Sherrod Brown’s (D-Ohio) reelection race has been the one to watch. As it gets closer to Election Day, Brown is looking more likely to win — DDHQ puts his chances at 63 percent — but it’s still an uphill battle for him.

Michigan: Michigan has not elected a Republican to the Senate in 30 years, but Republicans see it as one of their best chances. It’s still a long shot, though.

Nevada: Sen.Jacky Rosen(D-Nev.) is favored to win her seat, but it’s been a race getting a lot of attention.

Pennsylvania: Republican David McCormick is challenging Sen.Bob Casey(D-Pa.), but McCormick has recently had some bad gaffes. Republicans are still hoping for an upset.

Former Sen.Pat Toomey(R), who represented Pennsylvania for 12 years in the Senate, says he *won’t* vote for Trump or Harris in November’s election.

He voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020, but: He told CNBC’s “Squawk Box, “when you lose an election and you try to overturn the results so that you can stay in power, you lose me. You lose me at that point.”More from the contentious back and forthwith CNBC host hostJoe Kernen. 💻Watch the clip

Keep in mind: Toomey was one of seven Senate Republicans who voted to convict Trump at his second impeachment trial.

• ‘JD Vance’s “anytime, anywhere” media strategy’:Axios
• ‘What Awaits a Harris Presidency’:The Atlantic
• ‘How Harris could tackle food inflation’:The Hill
• ‘Can Democrats Stop the “Tax Doom Loop”?’:The New York Times
• ‘A louder voice in fighting abortion bans: Men in red states’:The Washington Post
• ‘Anti-Trump GOP group launches $11.5 million ad buy in swing states’:The Hill

Congress has until Sept. 30 to fund the government to prevent a shutdown. Neither party wants a shutdown — it’s risky this close to an election — but there are still many hurdles to prevent a lapse in funding.

A continuing resolution (CR) seems likely. It would punt the deadline without changing any funding levels. But an outstanding question would be the duration of this CR.

On one hand: “[Some] Republicans in the House and Senate, bullish on former President Trump’s chances of reclaiming the Oval Office, have been pressing for a stopgap bill that would kick the next funding deadline into next year.”

On the other hand: “Democrats have pushed back strongly against the idea and some Republicans, particularly those tasked with crafting the annual spending legislation, are also reluctant to punt the work into next year.”

Another hurdle: Some House conservatives want to include legislation for stricter proof-of-citizenship requirements to vote. This measure would never pass the Democratic-controlled Senate, though, so it may be a strategy for conservatives to gain leverage.

Read more: The Hill’sAris Folleybreaks down more hurdlesthat could complicate efforts to prevent a shutdown.

🧀Celebrate: Today isNational Welsh Rarebit Day! For those who don’t know what this is, you gotta check it out.

💉 You think Ozempic will be Time’s person of the year?: A new study shows that popular weight loss drugs Ozempic and Wegovy may reduce the risk of severe COVID-19 reactions. (NewsNation)

🖋️ Not great news for teachers: AI detection tools are still having trouble catching plagiarism,reports Axios’sMegan Morrone.

• 1:15 p.m.: State Department spokesperson Matthew Millerbriefs reporters.💻Livestream
• 2 p.m.: Biden speaks at the kickoff event of the Investing in America content series. 💻Livestream
• 2:30 p.m.: White House press secretaryKarine Jean-PierreandTom Perez, director of the Office of Intergovernmental Affairs, brief reporters. 💻Livestream